Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UCI +105 UCSB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -2.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -2.2 (+1.8) | 136.4 (+5.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -1.9 (+2.1) | 135.5 (+6.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -0.7 (+3.3) | 137.5 (+4.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -1.3 (+2.7) | 135.8 (+6.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCI 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UCSB 84 – 79 UCI |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCI 97 – 88 UCSB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCI 62 – 60 UCSB |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCI 81 – 69 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-9 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 13-3 |
| Home | 10-1 | 11-0 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#164) | 1.1 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#209) | 0.39 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#193) | 0.21 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#187) | 0.491 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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