Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | VT -360 MIA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | VT -15.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -13.4 (-11.4) | 135.7 (+22.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -10.9 (-8.9) | 137.9 (+20.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -12.2 (-10.2) | 136.4 (+21.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -13.3 (-11.3) | 136.1 (+21.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MIA 67 – 66 VT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VT 81 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VT 86 – 85 MIA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MIA 82 – 74 VT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-7 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 4-15 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-3 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#46) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#25) | 0.24 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#34) | -0.22 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#59) | 0.496 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 11.9% |
Game Analysis
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