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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–9 on winners spread MAE 8.4 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Bellarmine @ Kentucky +21.4 145.5 90% 41–60 ✓
Maryland @ Louisville -14.5 137.4 16% 79–54 ✓
UNC Asheville @ North Carolina Central +2.2 148.8 57% 66–79 ✓
South Carolina State @ East Carolina +14.1 152.5 88% 73–68 ✗
UAlbany @ American University +12.0 137.9 85% 62–88 ✓
Old Dominion @ Charleston +7.4 149.9 74% 60–75 ✓
Massachusetts @ South Florida -0.9 134.3 45% 73–67 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Duquesne +7.3 143.1 77% 61–72 ✓
Brown @ Central Connecticut +2.4 135.1 51% 59–51 ✗
Charlotte @ Davidson +1.9 134.0 52% 68–66 ✗
Jackson State @ Miami (OH) +2.8 147.9 59% 78–95 ✓
Queens University @ Bowling Green +0.9 145.7 56% 72–66 ✗
VMI @ Presbyterian +3.3 137.1 65% 57–72 ✓
William & Mary @ NC State +18.5 147.1 88% 64–85 ✓
Penn State @ Clemson -0.0 136.7 55% 94–101 ✗
Syracuse @ Illinois +20.8 148.0 89% 44–73 ✓
Norfolk State @ Houston +28.8 129.5 91% 52–100 ✓
Weber State @ Tarleton State +14.7 142.7 87% 65–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Kansas City +5.3 130.4 56% 75–65 ✗
Montana @ Southern Miss +18.4 129.0 88% 54–64 ✓
Missouri @ Wichita State +1.7 146.4 35% 88–84 ✗
Baylor @ Marquette +5.6 158.7 71% 70–96 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Boise State +16.6 130.5 86% 46–55 ✓
Alcorn State @ Grand Canyon +6.0 129.8 74% 72–80 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Iowa +13.9 146.9 86% 65–81 ✓
Wake Forest @ Wisconsin +5.2 135.8 61% 78–75 ✗
Virginia @ Michigan -1.8 137.9 35% 70–68 ✓
UC Irvine @ San Diego State +4.2 139.3 63% 69–72 ✓
Navy @ Lipscomb +2.2 143.6 58% 77–82 ✓
Santa Clara @ Wyoming -4.4 139.4 31% 89–85 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Binghamton +6.1 138.3 72% 84–70 ✗
Merrimack @ UMass Lowell +21.2 138.2 91% 51–77 ✓
Temple @ La Salle -1.7 138.3 42% 67–51 ✓
Kansas State @ Butler +2.8 139.9 74% 64–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.