And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–13 on winners spread MAE 9.7 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Gulf Coast @ Tennessee +5.5 139.7 71% 50–81 ✓
Oakland @ Toledo +29.5 156.4 91% 90–112 ✓
Marist @ Lehigh +4.5 144.4 69% 54–64 ✓
Ohio @ Detroit Mercy +3.7 140.7 67% 74–88 ✓
William & Mary @ American University +7.1 141.0 69% 64–71 ✓
Delaware State @ Columbia +3.6 138.3 63% 65–70 ✓
Cincinnati @ Northern Kentucky -4.5 139.1 38% 51–64 ✗
Hampton @ East Carolina +19.0 147.3 88% 73–82 ✓
Cleveland State @ Canisius +2.0 149.2 55% 58–57 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Tulane +17.1 141.6 87% 79–99 ✓
Harvard @ Northeastern +1.5 145.8 48% 70–69 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Ohio State +25.6 134.1 91% 43–65 ✓
Presbyterian @ UAB +20.6 153.1 89% 61–92 ✓
Iowa @ Seton Hall +8.0 141.0 71% 83–67 ✗
Army @ Siena +20.7 142.1 86% 96–94 ✗
Texas Southern @ Houston +35.4 135.4 91% 48–83 ✓
South Dakota State @ Arkansas +10.3 134.0 73% 56–71 ✓
Valparaiso @ Chicago State -0.3 145.1 49% 74–87 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Evansville +5.5 141.2 76% 67–61 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Notre Dame +1.7 152.6 63% 70–82 ✓
Ball State @ Omaha +5.1 148.5 71% 71–61 ✗
Southern @ Saint Mary's +20.3 131.5 89% 54–72 ✓
VCU @ Arizona State -1.7 131.1 43% 59–63 ✗
Missouri State @ BYU — — — 64–66 —
Cal State Bakersfield @ Idaho +7.0 132.2 80% 52–43 ✗
Gonzaga @ Texas +9.1 134.9 68% 74–93 ✓
San Francisco @ Fresno State +3.4 135.9 65% 67–60 ✗
Furman @ Penn State +4.4 149.7 65% 68–73 ✓
Colorado @ Massachusetts -3.9 146.7 31% 63–66 ✗
Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech +6.3 148.1 77% 71–75 ✓
Murray State @ Texas A&M +9.9 143.4 84% 88–79 ✗
Colorado State @ South Carolina -4.8 133.6 29% 85–53 ✓
Saint Francis @ Butler +20.7 137.3 86% 67–95 ✓
Kansas City @ Kansas State +27.4 137.0 90% 53–69 ✓
Nebraska @ St. John's +9.8 149.2 71% 50–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.