Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR -2000 SFPA +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +28 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -21.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -19.6 (+8.4) | 139.3 (+22.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -18.9 (+9.1) | 141.9 (+20.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -16.7 (+11.3) | 139.2 (+22.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -20.7 (+7.3) | 137.3 (+24.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#26) | -2.3 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#159) | -2.44 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#143) | -3.37 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#37) | 0.141 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 19.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.9% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 84.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.