Penn State
Nittany Lions
73
–
68
FINAL
Neutral
Shriners Children's Charleston Classic
Furman
Paladins
Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -150 FUR +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -5.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -4.4 (+0.6) | 149.7 (-8.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -4.6 (+0.4) | 148.8 (-7.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -3.5 (+1.5) | 150.0 (-9.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#47) | 2.1 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#71) | 0.54 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#73) | 0.75 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.806 (#15) | 0.625 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.8% | 58.3% |
| 3PT% | 47.8% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.10 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.3% | 65.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 17.2% | 42.3% |
| FT Rate | 11.9% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 85.6% | 81.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 6.2% |
Game Analysis
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