Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MASS +188 COLO -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -7.8 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -2.7 (+5.7) | 145.7 (-16.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -5.5 (+8.5) | 142.7 (-13.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -3.9 (+6.9) | 144.3 (-15.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -3.9 (+6.9) | 146.7 (-17.7) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#192) | 7.2 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#229) | 1.44 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#203) | 2.30 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#210) | 0.828 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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