Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ND -1000 USI +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ND -0.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.4 (+7.6) | 151.9 (+0.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -5.0 (+7.0) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -3.4 (+8.6) | 151.5 (+0.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -1.7 (+10.3) | 152.6 (-0.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#190) | 8.1 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#58) | 1.21 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#50) | 1.87 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#55) | 0.708 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.3% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 43.2% | 45.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.1% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 26.4% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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