Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -15.0 Push |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -11.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -12.1 (+2.9) | 138.4 (-11.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.6 (+8.4) | 131.8 (-4.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.2 (+5.8) | 135.3 (-8.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -10.3 (+4.7) | 134.0 (-7.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#50) | 5.2 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#99) | 1.91 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#92) | 3.15 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#48) | 0.658 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 3.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 13.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 37.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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