Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | TENN -3300 FGCU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +31 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -3.8 (+27.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -5.5 (+25.5) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -4.2 (+26.8) | 140.3 (-9.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -5.4 (+25.6) | 139.2 (-8.2) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#130) | 7.5 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#231) | 1.68 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#224) | 2.61 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.344 (#290) | 0.751 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.8% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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