Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -2000 SOU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +18 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -17.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -21.6 (-3.6) | 128.7 (-2.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -18.0 (-0.0) | 125.4 (+0.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -16.2 (+1.8) | 131.4 (-5.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -20.3 (-2.3) | 131.5 (-5.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 9-2 |
| Away | 6-2 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#38) | 0.9 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#57) | -0.64 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#55) | -0.85 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#71) | 0.542 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 82.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 60.2% |
Game Analysis
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