Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -120 W&M +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -12.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -8.7 (-1.7) | 138.5 (-3.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -7.2 (-0.2) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -7.1 (-0.1) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -5.2 (+1.8) | 135.4 (-0.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2023 | W&M 75 – 56 AMER |
| Nov 13, 2021 | AMER 74 – 62 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#238) | -6.5 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#318) | -2.40 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#314) | -3.97 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.167 (#345) | 0.410 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 3.3% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.8% | 62.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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