Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -150 GONZ +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +19 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -9.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -7.2 (+11.8) | 138.3 (+28.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -8.0 (+11.0) | 142.2 (+24.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -8.6 (+10.4) | 137.3 (+29.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -9.1 (+9.9) | 134.9 (+32.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 21, 2026 | TEX 74 – 68 GONZ |
| Nov 14, 2021 | GONZ 86 – 74 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-2 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 85.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#12) | 11.8 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#94) | 2.07 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#96) | 2.66 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#48) | 0.708 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 54.1% |
| 3PT% | 19.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.4% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.4% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.8% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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