Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -1000 MUR +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +9 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | TA&M -12.5 (-21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -9.9 (-18.9) | 143.4 (+23.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -10.2 (-19.2) | 145.1 (+21.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -9.3 (-18.3) | 145.7 (+21.3) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#41) | -3.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#92) | -0.15 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#91) | -0.12 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#2) | 0.750 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.9% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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