Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -500 HAMP +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -16.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -19.0 (-10.0) | 147.3 (+7.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -18.6 (-9.6) | 146.4 (+8.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -13.6 (-4.6) | 147.0 (+8.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#160) | -6.9 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#121) | -0.05 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#129) | -0.03 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#276) | 0.562 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 32.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 58.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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