Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -3.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -0.6 (+4.6) | 137.0 (-15.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -2.2 (+6.2) | 132.7 (-10.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -2.1 (+6.1) | 132.4 (-10.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -1.7 (+5.7) | 131.1 (-9.1) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#164) | 3.8 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#243) | 0.62 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#232) | 0.88 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.299 (#308) | 0.417 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 25.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 32.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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