Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -600 NEB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +20 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -9.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -7.8 (+12.2) | 147.8 (-27.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -8.1 (+11.9) | 143.1 (-23.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -7.5 (+12.5) | 149.2 (-29.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -9.8 (+10.2) | 149.2 (-29.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#97) | 3.1 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#102) | 1.78 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#99) | 2.92 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#233) | 0.833 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.8% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.2% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 8.8% |
Game Analysis
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