Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -8000 TXSO +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +35 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -39.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -36.3 (-1.3) | 138.0 (-7.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -27.2 (+7.8) | 131.0 (-0.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -25.8 (+9.2) | 135.9 (-4.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -35.4 (-0.4) | 135.4 (-4.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 11-0 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 21.7 (#2) | -9.0 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#30) | -1.37 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#26) | -2.45 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.759 (#22) | 0.517 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 41.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 31.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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