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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–16 on winners spread MAE 10.6 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Texas @ Arkansas +7.3 165.5 72% 85–105 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Washington +10.5 155.6 83% 82–91 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island +2.3 141.6 62% 52–64 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +4.7 132.5 65% 70–67 ✗
UAB @ Charlotte -0.1 144.4 47% 80–74 ✓
Marquette @ Providence +6.6 162.1 76% 78–56 ✗
Miami @ SMU +1.7 157.9 56% 77–69 ✗
California @ Georgia Tech -5.5 150.7 26% 76–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +6.2 129.5 68% 77–71 ✗
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +5.3 135.2 71% 81–71 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst +6.0 136.0 74% 61–70 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +4.1 139.1 67% 70–60 ✗
Chicago State @ Long Island University +11.6 139.8 87% 75–79 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +3.2 160.9 67% 85–84 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +3.5 153.0 70% 63–84 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +7.3 144.8 77% 53–68 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +13.4 159.7 89% 61–90 ✓
Ohio State @ Penn State -7.6 148.4 28% 94–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate +11.8 141.0 86% 65–64 ✗
North Florida @ West Georgia +3.3 154.4 69% 85–93 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis +25.8 149.6 91% 65–79 ✓
Maryland @ Wisconsin +14.5 151.5 85% 45–78 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +8.1 137.3 81% 58–62 ✓
Villanova @ DePaul -2.6 135.2 44% 76–57 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +11.8 145.4 86% 62–84 ✓
Purdue @ Northwestern -8.4 143.4 19% 70–66 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern -0.7 159.3 46% 84–88 ✗
Baylor @ Houston +14.7 146.2 88% 64–77 ✓
Florida State @ Pittsburgh +0.4 144.6 46% 75–74 ✗
Stanford @ Notre Dame +0.2 147.5 50% 86–78 ✗
Little Rock @ Lindenwood +1.6 143.2 62% 62–72 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +9.0 145.8 79% 82–74 ✗
USC @ Washington +5.0 148.8 72% 72–91 ✓
Drake @ Southern Illinois +5.2 138.2 76% 67–63 ✗
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +5.8 143.1 80% 80–64 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Iona +3.1 145.1 68% 91–80 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Miss -1.4 144.5 42% 80–86 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.