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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
33 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Purdue
@
Maryland
|
-11.6 | 141.2 | 15% | 67–53 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Tennessee
|
+20.2 | 137.7 | 97% | 50–87 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Pittsburgh
|
+2.4 | 155.2 | 59% | 70–57 | ✗ |
East Carolina
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+22.4 | 149.7 | 98% | 64–79 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Wisconsin
|
+9.9 | 159.0 | 82% | 72–83 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Boston College
|
+1.8 | 155.4 | 56% | 84–78 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Georgetown
|
-12.9 | 151.0 | 12% | 77–60 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Kent State
|
+11.9 | 145.8 | 86% | 69–82 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Central Michigan
|
+5.2 | 140.5 | 68% | 76–64 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Bowling Green
|
+12.8 | 136.0 | 88% | 90–92 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Miami (OH)
|
+7.7 | 149.0 | 76% | 83–74 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Ohio
|
+2.9 | 164.6 | 60% | 86–77 | ✗ |
UAlbany
@
Harvard
|
+6.8 | 155.6 | 73% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
Brown
|
-3.5 | 135.4 | 38% | 71–70 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Baylor
|
+17.4 | 172.8 | 94% | 79–98 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Murray State
|
-2.8 | 137.8 | 40% | 73–85 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Southern Illinois
|
+11.5 | 150.8 | 85% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Kansas State
|
+18.4 | 138.2 | 95% | 55–62 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Northern Illinois
|
-1.0 | 151.9 | 46% | 73–51 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Wyoming
|
+3.2 | 143.9 | 62% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Butler
@
St. John's
|
+6.0 | 156.1 | 71% | 70–86 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Illinois
|
+12.6 | 141.3 | 87% | 66–96 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Duke
|
+14.7 | 153.0 | 91% | 66–86 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania
@
Auburn
|
+21.3 | 154.8 | 97% | 68–88 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
SMU
|
+11.8 | 130.4 | 86% | 54–66 | ✓ |
UAB
@
UTSA
|
+0.9 | 165.0 | 53% | 78–76 | ✗ |
Illinois State
@
Drake
|
+13.9 | 134.9 | 90% | 71–88 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Colorado State
|
+7.0 | 155.6 | 74% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Howard
|
-1.2 | 151.4 | 46% | 86–78 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
UNC Asheville
|
+8.3 | 142.7 | 77% | 67–95 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Providence
|
+8.3 | 137.9 | 78% | 61–57 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
Winthrop
|
+2.7 | 139.5 | 60% | 60–68 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
La Salle
|
-3.0 | 146.0 | 39% | 77–62 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.