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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–10 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Incarnate Word
@
Texas Tech
|
+28.6 | 131.4 | 100% | 51–79 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Rutgers
|
+7.0 | 141.1 | 74% | 76–81 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Clemson
|
+9.1 | 123.1 | 80% | 67–77 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
USC
|
+17.9 | 131.4 | 95% | 63–86 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Memphis
|
+9.7 | 139.5 | 81% | 57–58 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
LSU
|
+14.6 | 148.8 | 91% | 54–77 | ✓ |
Wofford
@
Mercer
|
+12.5 | 140.4 | 87% | 78–65 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+0.9 | 159.7 | 53% | 87–60 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
Lamar
|
-3.0 | 134.1 | 39% | 64–74 | ✗ |
Omaha
@
Kansas State
|
+9.5 | 137.4 | 81% | 58–60 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Gonzaga
|
+30.4 | 167.4 | 100% | 67–112 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Tulsa
|
-8.8 | 122.5 | 21% | 64–65 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Iowa
|
+11.7 | 169.8 | 86% | 72–87 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Alabama
|
-2.7 | 137.2 | 40% | 64–82 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Saint Joseph's
|
-10.0 | 162.9 | 18% | 80–64 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Delaware State
|
+0.9 | 153.8 | 53% | 65–59 | ✗ |
Furman
@
Chattanooga
|
-4.0 | 149.0 | 36% | 77–73 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Ohio
|
+11.3 | 162.0 | 85% | 83–75 | ✗ |
SMU
@
Temple
|
-7.1 | 139.0 | 26% | 79–71 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Hampton
|
-4.9 | 143.8 | 33% | 69–80 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Baylor
|
+51.1 | 164.5 | 100% | 76–105 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Longwood
|
+1.5 | 144.7 | 55% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Campbell
@
Winthrop
|
+23.5 | 149.7 | 98% | 83–84 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
+16.9 | 128.9 | 94% | 59–81 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Rhode Island
|
+2.3 | 143.4 | 58% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Providence
|
+9.7 | 145.2 | 81% | 55–71 | ✓ |
Radford
@
Presbyterian
|
-3.0 | 123.0 | 39% | 71–65 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Notre Dame
|
-9.4 | 140.6 | 20% | 66–57 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Massachusetts
|
+15.6 | 157.8 | 92% | 93–92 | ✗ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
High Point
|
+12.3 | 157.6 | 87% | 52–63 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Ohio State
|
+12.5 | 141.7 | 87% | 54–90 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.