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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–3 on winners
spread MAE 11.9
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maryland
@
Wisconsin
|
+8.2 | 140.2 | 77% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Illinois State
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+19.1 | 152.5 | 96% | 55–86 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
UC Irvine
|
+2.6 | 135.5 | 59% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Minnesota
|
+9.9 | 169.3 | 82% | 56–81 | ✓ |
Missouri State
@
Northern Iowa
|
-10.0 | 151.0 | 18% | 75–85 | ✗ |
Northern Arizona
@
Gonzaga
|
+41.8 | 165.2 | 100% | 58–88 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Arizona
|
-3.3 | 142.8 | 38% | 74–88 | ✗ |
Northeastern
@
West Virginia
|
+11.9 | 130.6 | 86% | 51–73 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Baylor
|
+33.4 | 164.6 | 100% | 56–93 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Virginia Tech
|
+15.6 | 132.7 | 92% | 78–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.