← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–10 on winners
spread MAE 11.0
29 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seton Hall
@
Xavier
|
+6.6 | 150.5 | 73% | 85–68 | ✗ |
La Salle
@
Dayton
|
+8.4 | 126.5 | 78% | 67–65 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Davidson
|
+5.0 | 147.2 | 67% | 80–74 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Georgia
|
+8.0 | 147.6 | 77% | 83–73 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
Auburn
|
-5.6 | 147.0 | 30% | 97–85 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Belmont
|
+8.7 | 143.9 | 78% | 55–68 | ✓ |
Western Carolina
@
East Tennessee State
|
+2.7 | 145.6 | 60% | 78–86 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Georgia Tech
|
-3.8 | 154.4 | 37% | 67–72 | ✗ |
Boston College
@
NC State
|
+20.0 | 155.6 | 97% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+8.9 | 157.2 | 79% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Tennessee State
|
+3.3 | 145.4 | 62% | 68–59 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
TCU
|
+17.3 | 145.1 | 94% | 61–66 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Samford
|
+6.5 | 153.2 | 72% | 71–84 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Indiana
|
+3.4 | 140.2 | 62% | 85–87 | ✓ |
UT Martin
@
Jacksonville State
|
+18.4 | 137.1 | 95% | 70–80 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Missouri
|
-2.4 | 130.0 | 41% | 73–53 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
UConn
|
+9.5 | 159.3 | 81% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Portland
@
Seattle U
|
+5.2 | 139.6 | 68% | 68–84 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Vanderbilt
|
-7.7 | 138.4 | 24% | 91–72 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Tennessee Tech
|
-0.7 | 146.7 | 48% | 63–72 | ✗ |
Sacramento State
@
Saint Mary's
|
+4.9 | 128.3 | 67% | 45–63 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Hampton
|
-0.6 | 145.2 | 48% | 80–69 | ✓ |
Campbell
@
Winthrop
|
+17.6 | 155.3 | 95% | 76–94 | ✓ |
Radford
@
Presbyterian
|
-4.0 | 127.3 | 36% | 63–65 | ✗ |
UNC Asheville
@
Longwood
|
-0.6 | 147.4 | 48% | 55–65 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
Air Force
|
-3.8 | 121.1 | 37% | 83–48 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Wisconsin
|
+9.7 | 149.9 | 81% | 59–71 | ✓ |
San Diego
@
San Francisco
|
+23.4 | 144.7 | 98% | 62–70 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
High Point
|
+13.1 | 146.5 | 88% | 60–51 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.