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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–13 on winners
spread MAE 11.7
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah
@
UCLA
|
+6.4 | 144.7 | 72% | 70–72 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Maryland
|
+5.3 | 147.4 | 69% | 84–73 | ✗ |
Arizona
@
Washington
|
-10.9 | 140.9 | 16% | 80–53 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Idaho
|
+8.3 | 137.8 | 77% | 78–65 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
San José State
|
-33.0 | 147.5 | 0% | 106–54 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
New Mexico
|
+3.1 | 141.9 | 61% | 68–54 | ✗ |
California
@
Oregon
|
+16.6 | 129.7 | 93% | 69–82 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
USC
|
+3.1 | 146.8 | 61% | 72–62 | ✗ |
Saint Peter's
@
Canisius
|
-7.4 | 132.5 | 25% | 58–70 | ✗ |
Niagara
@
Marist
|
+2.5 | 119.3 | 59% | 61–63 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Lipscomb
|
-11.2 | 140.0 | 16% | 70–77 | ✗ |
UTSA
@
Rice
|
+11.8 | 146.4 | 86% | 86–95 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Youngstown State
|
+8.8 | 151.4 | 79% | 77–84 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
Charlotte
|
+0.8 | 133.1 | 53% | 67–63 | ✗ |
Rider
@
Fairfield
|
+0.1 | 136.4 | 51% | 70–62 | ✗ |
UT Arlington
@
Little Rock
|
+5.8 | 145.0 | 70% | 93–102 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Robert Morris
|
-3.5 | 150.0 | 37% | 64–67 | ✗ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Northern Kentucky
|
+11.0 | 152.4 | 84% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Kennesaw State
|
+5.2 | 129.1 | 68% | 62–57 | ✗ |
Georgia State
@
Coastal Carolina
|
-2.7 | 178.6 | 40% | 69–81 | ✗ |
South Alabama
@
Georgia Southern
|
+1.0 | 164.3 | 54% | 88–59 | ✗ |
Troy
@
App State
|
+8.4 | 120.2 | 78% | 69–56 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.