Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
| Money | MRST +130 NIA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -3.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -2.0 (+0.0) | 125.2 (-1.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -1.4 (+0.6) | 125.8 (-1.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.1 (+1.9) | 128.1 (-4.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -1.9 (+0.1) | 125.0 (-1.0) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-9 | 9-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#194) | -1.1 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#108) | -0.09 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#149) | 0.19 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#167) | 0.473 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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