Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -300 PFW +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -10.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -8.3 (-1.3) | 147.7 (-4.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -8.8 (-1.8) | 144.3 (-1.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -11.1 (-4.1) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -8.7 (-1.7) | 148.8 (-5.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#214) | -10.0 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#196) | -1.51 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#201) | -2.35 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#206) | 0.305 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 60.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 27.8% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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