Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -7.9 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -6.5 (+18.5) | 137.6 (-9.6) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -5.3 (+17.3) | 135.9 (-7.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -5.7 (+17.7) | 139.6 (-11.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -6.5 (+18.5) | 137.5 (-9.5) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | SPU 69 – 57 CAN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SPU 70 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SPU 62 – 49 CAN |
| Jan 21, 2024 | SPU 70 – 59 CAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | SPU 54 – 52 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-6 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 7-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 3-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 61.5 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#283) | 3.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#206) | 1.49 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#199) | 2.22 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#176) | 0.621 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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