Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | APP -340 TROY +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +13 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -9.8 (-22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -6.3 (-19.3) | 125.9 (-0.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -5.2 (-18.2) | 127.5 (-2.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -6.3 (-19.3) | 126.7 (-1.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -7.2 (-20.2) | 127.8 (-2.8) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
Game Analysis
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