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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 9.4 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Youngstown State @ Stephen F. Austin	+3.3	130.4	61%	57–64	✓
New Mexico State @ UNLV	+13.5	141.1	87%	65–72	✓
Stony Brook @ Columbia	+11.9	145.8	86%	63–82	✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State	+0.3	132.6	38%	68–52	✗
Rider @ Bucknell	+4.6	146.0	64%	57–53	✗
Cal Poly @ Saint Mary's	+12.2	151.7	87%	66–80	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Northern Colorado	+15.2	166.9	88%	98–114	✓
Eastern Washington @ California Baptist	+3.5	151.3	68%	68–79	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ BYU	+28.9	143.5	91%	43–87	✓
Stanford @ Santa Clara	-3.2	141.4	27%	71–69	✓
Portland @ Princeton	+11.1	145.1	83%	67–94	✓
St. John's @ Georgia	-2.0	149.6	49%	63–66	✗
Hampton @ Boise State	+20.4	137.1	90%	69–83	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Northeastern	+6.3	132.8	71%	68–60	✗
American University @ UAlbany	+5.9	130.5	57%	81–77	✗
Holy Cross @ Maine	+5.4	137.6	70%	55–80	✓
Boston University @ Howard	+5.2	134.4	63%	69–62	✗
Omaha @ Lamar	-0.3	144.7	48%	65–59	✓
Wofford @ Portland State	-2.3	149.2	49%	74–79	✗
Charleston @ Rhode Island	+5.8	160.2	70%	53–91	✓
Miami @ VCU	+2.7	143.3	65%	70–77	✓
Rutgers @ Kennesaw State	+2.1	154.7	63%	77–79	✓
South Florida @ Wright State	+4.9	145.2	59%	73–72	✗
William & Mary @ App State	+0.4	147.1	58%	76–79	✓
Vermont @ Fairfield	-3.0	129.4	41%	66–67	✗
Binghamton @ Central Connecticut	+9.8	131.8	86%	56–64	✓
Villanova @ Maryland	+9.6	141.2	81%	75–76	✓
South Dakota State @ Duquesne	-6.5	144.1	28%	71–60	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Valparaiso	+3.4	143.5	79%	53–81	✓
Bryant @ St. Bonaventure	+9.6	150.4	83%	70–85	✓
UNC Asheville @ Central Arkansas	-6.6	143.9	27%	83–92	✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Milwaukee	-0.0	148.5	52%	65–69	✗
LSU @ UCF	-3.0	143.4	38%	109–102	✓
Oklahoma State @ Nevada	+6.5	138.1	75%	78–90	✓
Florida International @ Florida Gulf Coast	+3.9	132.0	72%	59–60	✓
Alabama State @ Akron	+6.1	154.4	81%	78–97	✓
North Alabama @ Northwestern State	-2.1	142.1	38%	58–71	✗
Florida State @ Massachusetts	-1.8	151.2	33%	92–59	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Utah Tech	-10.1	149.8	17%	89–79	✓
Towson @ Morgan State	-3.8	137.7	31%	64–60	✓
Campbell @ Evansville	+2.3	138.3	60%	53–66	✓
Mercyhurst @ Air Force	+1.2	126.0	47%	48–82	✓
Sacramento State @ California	+12.4	137.2	87%	77–83	✓
Alcorn State @ UC Riverside	+15.7	137.0	89%	52–69	✓
Idaho @ San Diego	+3.3	140.3	67%	61–68	✓
Missouri State @ High Point	+3.0	146.0	71%	71–61	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouri	+26.8	156.4	91%	63–112	✓
Queens University @ East Tennessee State	+9.2	149.1	81%	67–82	✓
Jackson State @ Lipscomb	+11.9	143.5	87%	53–77	✓
Longwood @ McNeese	+2.0	137.3	67%	69–84	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Bradley	+6.1	144.6	70%	69–80	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Seton Hall	-2.6	134.0	49%	61–63	✗
Yale @ Delaware	-9.6	151.3	21%	94–100	✗
Wisconsin @ Pittsburgh	+6.8	152.9	62%	81–75	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.