Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +275 UNCA -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +9 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -3.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -5.0 (+14.0) | 143.9 (+31.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.8 (+12.8) | 142.0 (+33.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -1.9 (+10.9) | 139.9 (+35.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -6.6 (+15.6) | 143.9 (+31.1) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 1-16 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#342) | -1.8 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.51 (#352) | 1.33 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.10 (#351) | 2.21 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.321 (#352) | 0.559 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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