Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PRIN -800 PORT +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +27 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | PRIN -7.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -8.1 (+18.9) | 144.5 (+16.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -5.1 (+21.9) | 142.8 (+18.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -7.2 (+19.8) | 142.2 (+18.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -11.1 (+15.9) | 145.1 (+15.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#219) | -9.6 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#136) | -2.13 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#126) | -3.47 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#182) | 0.411 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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