Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -360 ALST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +19 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -2.7 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -2.5 (+16.5) | 154.3 (+20.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -3.7 (+15.3) | 151.4 (+23.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -3.5 (+15.5) | 148.8 (+26.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -6.1 (+12.9) | 154.4 (+20.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 8-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#192) | 2.3 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#185) | 0.48 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#186) | 0.78 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#184) | 0.484 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 36.5% |
Game Analysis
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