Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -165 YSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +7 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -7.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -4.4 (+2.6) | 131.8 (-10.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -4.6 (+2.4) | 127.2 (-6.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -4.0 (+3.0) | 126.4 (-5.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -3.3 (+3.7) | 130.4 (-9.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#238) | -4.8 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#311) | -0.78 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#298) | -1.43 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#268) | 0.435 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 28.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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