Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ME -275 HC +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ME -6.7 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -3.2 (+21.8) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -4.4 (+20.6) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -4.1 (+20.9) | 140.3 (-5.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -5.4 (+19.6) | 137.6 (-2.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | ME 72 – 57 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-11 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#167) | -0.5 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#215) | 1.06 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#234) | 1.50 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#291) | 0.579 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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