Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -45.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +44 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -41.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -38.7 (+5.3) | 142.7 (-12.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -38.9 (+5.1) | 144.5 (-14.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -25.4 (+18.6) | 142.9 (-12.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -28.9 (+15.1) | 143.5 (-13.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 1-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 2-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 82.3 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#31) | -22.9 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#57) | -1.14 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#92) | -1.67 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#142) | 0.497 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 34.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 21.2% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 26.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.10 | 0.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 36.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 28.4% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 57.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 40.8% |
Game Analysis
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