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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–5 on winners spread MAE 8.6 30 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Grambling @ USC	+8.7	138.5	85%	69–80	✓
Denver @ Montana	+5.4	143.6	75%	73–83	✓
Old Dominion @ Boston College	+15.6	139.1	88%	52–82	✓
Liberty @ Kansas State	-3.4	132.3	38%	67–65	✓
Ohio @ Texas State	+0.0	143.4	62%	65–74	✓
Texas Southern @ New Mexico	+20.6	156.4	90%	68–99	✓
Southern Miss @ Montana State	+11.5	147.9	84%	59–79	✓
Drake @ Vanderbilt	-0.7	136.9	36%	81–70	✓
Radford @ Chicago State	-9.3	136.1	17%	63–48	✓
Hampton @ Duquesne	-0.4	127.7	52%	64–59	✓
Siena @ Miami (OH)	+1.6	140.8	69%	58–70	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Ball State	-6.6	141.3	45%	61–63	✗
Howard @ UMBC	-4.1	141.3	38%	77–95	✗
UAB @ Louisiana	-6.8	147.9	23%	98–86	✓
Drexel @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+3.8	145.0	68%	81–87	✓
Boise State @ South Dakota State	-7.0	149.7	23%	83–82	✓
Memphis @ UConn	+6.3	139.8	55%	99–97	✗
Illinois State @ George Washington	+1.3	145.1	70%	64–72	✓
Southern Illinois @ Louisiana Tech	+9.8	145.5	79%	79–85	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Alabama A&M	+3.6	142.8	51%	88–83	✗
Mercer @ Jacksonville	+6.4	143.2	71%	90–89	✗
Denver @ Cal State Northridge	+10.6	147.1	86%	60–89	✓
Penn State @ Fordham	-12.2	154.5	18%	85–66	✓
High Point @ Old Dominion	-9.9	139.4	17%	73–67	✓
Longwood @ Kansas State	+1.9	138.9	63%	64–80	✓
Colorado @ Michigan State	+1.2	144.5	72%	56–72	✓
Merrimack @ UMass Lowell	+7.8	133.8	82%	74–81	✓
Michigan @ Virginia Tech	-4.9	136.7	27%	75–63	✓
Long Island University @ Winthrop	+6.3	146.4	83%	65–87	✓
Clemson @ San Francisco	-0.4	137.8	45%	70–55	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.