Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -600 DEN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -6.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -5.5 (+4.5) | 141.9 (+14.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -4.8 (+5.2) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -4.0 (+6.0) | 145.4 (+10.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -5.4 (+4.6) | 143.6 (+12.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#234) | -3.6 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#205) | -0.48 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#194) | -0.83 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#37) | 0.485 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 26.3% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.5% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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