Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
The Pit · November 25, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -24.5 Home covered
O/U 157.5 Over
Money UNM -12000 / TXSO +1700
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual UNM +31 167 Won
Massey UNM -22.5 (+8.5)
Massey Totals 157.5 (+9.5)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML UNM -21.6 (+9.4) 155.6 (+11.4) 89%
Baseline ML UNM -20.7 (+10.3) 154.7 (+12.3) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -18.3 (+12.7) 152.1 (+14.9) 90%
Efficiency Plus ML UNM -20.6 (+10.4) 156.4 (+10.6) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 7, 2023 UNM 9255 TXSO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM TXSO
Overall 27-8 15-17
Conference 17-3 12-6
Home 15-1 9-4
Away 7-4 6-12
Neutral 5-3 0-1
Last 5 4-1 0-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.3 70.4
Avg Pts Against 70.6 72.4
Massey 10.3 (#39) -5.9 (#275)
Bradley-Terry 1.93 (#50) -1.97 (#318)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.19 (#45) -3.70 (#334)
RPI 0.600 (#62) 0.414 (#296)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM TXSO
FG% 45.9% 39.2%
3PT% 33.6% 27.8%
REB / G 39.4 35.2
OREB / G 12.6 10.8
AST / TO 1.32 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 43.2%
TOV% 18.6% 16.7%
ORB% 31.2% 26.7%
FT Rate 27.5% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 51.9%
Opp TOV% 24.9% 15.5%
DRB% 65.7% 66.2%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 41.2%

Game Analysis

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