Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TXST +140 OHIO -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -1.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -2.0 (+7.0) | 147.3 (-8.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -1.6 (+7.4) | 147.3 (-8.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -2.2 (+6.8) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -0.0 (+9.0) | 143.4 (-4.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#162) | -1.9 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#163) | -0.33 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#173) | -0.06 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#182) | 0.485 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 39.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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