Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU -220 IUIN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IUIN +5 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -3.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -3.1 (-8.1) | 146.2 (+24.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -3.9 (-8.9) | 148.0 (+23.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -3.5 (-8.5) | 145.0 (+26.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -3.6 (-8.6) | 142.8 (+28.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-9 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -13.6 (#353) | -11.1 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#338) | -3.64 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.25 (#345) | -5.89 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.334 (#348) | 0.333 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 59.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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