Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | CSUN -380 DEN +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +29 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | CSUN -11.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -10.4 (+18.6) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -8.9 (+20.1) | 148.4 (+0.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -9.2 (+19.8) | 147.5 (+1.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUN -10.6 (+18.4) | 147.1 (+1.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#68) | -3.6 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#53) | -0.48 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#50) | -0.83 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#154) | 0.485 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUN | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 26.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.1% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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