Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | GW -140 ILST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -0.9 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -1.1 (+6.9) | 146.8 (-10.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -0.2 (+8.2) | 147.4 (-11.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -0.6 (+7.4) | 144.8 (-8.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -1.3 (+6.7) | 145.1 (-9.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#185) | -0.1 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#164) | -0.19 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#187) | 0.58 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#163) | 0.437 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 39.1% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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