Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -360 USM +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -16.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -12.3 (+7.7) | 148.6 (-10.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -11.9 (+8.1) | 150.6 (-12.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -11.4 (+8.6) | 152.3 (-14.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -11.5 (+8.5) | 147.9 (-9.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#137) | -7.9 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#281) | -1.58 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#251) | -2.62 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#236) | 0.387 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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