Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC +110 HOW -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +18 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -5.4 (+23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -4.1 (+22.1) | 141.3 (+30.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -2.8 (+20.8) | 143.9 (+28.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -3.0 (+21.0) | 144.4 (+27.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -3.0 (+21.0) | 144.1 (+27.9) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 17, 2026 | HOW 86 – 83 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#348) | -1.2 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.87 (#358) | -0.43 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.44 (#354) | -1.11 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.277 (#363) | 0.517 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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