Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -112 UMBC -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -0.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -2.0 (+1.0) | 142.5 (+26.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -0.7 (+2.3) | 139.5 (+29.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.6 (+2.4) | 141.8 (+27.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -0.1 (+2.9) | 140.7 (+28.3) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2024 | UMBC 95 – 77 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#202) | -1.8 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#235) | -0.32 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#236) | -0.41 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#175) | 0.506 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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