Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | VT +450 MICH -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -12.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -5.7 (-6.3) | 137.4 (+0.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -5.9 (-6.1) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -5.8 (-6.2) | 139.4 (-1.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -4.9 (-7.1) | 136.7 (+1.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#216) | 9.8 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#215) | 0.95 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#212) | 1.65 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#259) | 0.592 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 52.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 61.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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