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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–13 on winners spread MAE 9.6 52 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Tennessee State @ Chattanooga	+9.8	148.3	82%	78–85	✓
East Texas A&M @ Stonehill	+5.9	136.4	73%	65–67	✓
New Hampshire @ Columbia	+15.5	139.7	88%	57–83	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Buffalo	+1.0	163.3	61%	81–82	✓
Green Bay @ Ohio State	+24.4	158.5	90%	69–102	✓
Cornell @ Iona	-0.5	148.0	43%	84–68	✓
Missouri State @ Boston College	-0.5	143.4	60%	74–76	✗
Le Moyne @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+11.7	147.8	85%	77–97	✓
Utah Tech @ Montana	+9.6	144.6	82%	66–69	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Arkansas	+21.5	143.6	91%	35–109	✓
Indiana State @ Southern Indiana	+1.0	157.7	53%	77–87	✓
Oregon State @ North Texas	+3.7	125.6	75%	55–58	✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Louis	+1.9	145.8	52%	67–81	✓
UTSA @ Troy	+13.8	145.0	86%	72–86	✓
Incarnate Word @ South Alabama	+7.3	136.8	80%	63–84	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Houston Christian	-1.6	132.2	37%	74–73	✓
Central Michigan @ Minnesota	+4.3	122.1	75%	65–68	✓
McNeese @ Liberty	+4.1	130.0	60%	58–62	✓
Xavier @ South Carolina	+1.1	144.0	50%	75–66	✗
UTEP @ San José State	-3.8	135.4	52%	65–71	✗
Auburn @ Iowa State	-6.3	147.2	19%	83–81	✓
Abilene Christian @ Southern Miss	-1.0	143.3	42%	82–74	✓
Norfolk State @ UC Davis	+5.1	144.7	73%	76–55	✗
Little Rock @ Illinois	+18.8	147.8	89%	34–92	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Long Beach State	-9.2	133.0	22%	71–48	✓
Dayton @ North Carolina	+9.7	155.4	75%	90–92	✓
Drexel @ Chicago State	-13.7	141.0	14%	83–71	✓
Jacksonville @ Siena	-3.7	140.3	33%	75–64	✓
Duquesne @ Old Dominion	-7.9	133.8	16%	67–54	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Southern Illinois	-0.4	145.6	37%	77–72	✓
Tulsa @ Detroit Mercy	+1.0	148.4	53%	63–44	✗
SE Louisiana @ Gardner-Webb	+8.1	137.8	80%	69–73	✓
San Francisco @ Fordham	-7.9	135.2	21%	85–64	✓
Miami (OH) @ Mercer	-1.9	146.0	39%	75–72	✓
Hampton @ High Point	+6.2	129.0	77%	73–76	✓
Creighton @ San Diego State	+2.1	145.0	58%	53–71	✓
Georgia State @ Austin Peay	+1.6	141.9	61%	50–62	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Richmond	-8.3	143.9	28%	65–62	✓
North Dakota @ Bethune-Cookman	-0.3	138.6	49%	67–79	✗
UConn @ Colorado	-5.4	145.8	37%	72–73	✗
Clemson @ Penn State	+2.0	146.6	50%	75–67	✗
Denver @ Utah Tech	-0.2	145.8	54%	54–68	✗
Bryant @ Tennessee State	-7.4	160.6	19%	97–85	✓
West Georgia @ Utah Valley	+15.0	138.9	89%	74–77	✓
Texas A&M @ Oregon	-0.4	140.0	58%	70–80	✗
South Dakota State @ Missouri State	-1.9	152.0	52%	75–55	✓
UT Arlington @ Murray State	+6.6	147.4	84%	66–79	✓
Memphis @ Michigan State	+0.5	146.8	57%	71–63	✗
NJIT @ Cleveland State	+12.3	130.7	85%	53–56	✓
Wyoming @ Tulane	+5.4	143.9	71%	64–63	✗
Western Kentucky @ Kentucky	+21.5	161.4	90%	68–87	✓
Radford @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+6.3	148.6	71%	69–56	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.