Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ODU +380 DUQ -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +13 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | DUQ -9.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -5.5 (-7.5) | 136.8 (-15.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -5.7 (-7.3) | 135.3 (-14.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -4.7 (-8.3) | 136.9 (-15.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -7.9 (-5.1) | 133.8 (-12.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -17.7 (#359) | -8.8 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.08 (#349) | -3.53 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.41 (#347) | -4.36 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.362 (#343) | 0.369 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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