Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -150 NCAT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +1 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -0.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -1.5 (-0.5) | 157.8 (+5.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -1.4 (-0.4) | 155.2 (+7.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -0.5 (+0.5) | 155.8 (+7.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -1.0 (+0.0) | 163.3 (-0.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#316) | -2.9 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#282) | 0.25 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#314) | 0.36 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#314) | 0.532 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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