Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USA -300 UIW +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +21 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | USA -9.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -6.1 (+14.9) | 137.3 (+9.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -6.2 (+14.8) | 137.6 (+9.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.7 (+15.3) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -7.3 (+13.7) | 136.8 (+10.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#145) | -1.9 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#201) | -0.56 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#201) | -0.64 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#184) | 0.410 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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